Market Watch - More Choice for Home Buyers in April

Listings were up markedly in April in comparison to last year and last month. Many homeowners are anticipating an increase in demand for ownership housing as we move through the spring. While sales are expected to pick up, many would-be home buyers are likely waiting for the Bank of Canada to actually begin cutting its policy rate before purchasing a home.

Ontario -  More Choice for Home Buyers in April

Toronto, May 3, 2024 -- April 2024 home sales were down in comparison to April 2023, when there was a temporary resurgence in market activity. New listings were up strongly year-over-year, which meant there was increased choice for home buyers and little movement in the average selling price compared to last year.

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 7,114 sales through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS® System in April 2024 – down by 5% compared to April 2023. New listings were up by 47.2% over the same period. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales edged lower while new listings were up compared to March.

“Listings were up markedly in April in comparison to last year and last month. Many homeowners are anticipating an increase in demand for ownership housing as we move through the spring. While sales are expected to pick up, many would-be home buyers are likely waiting for the Bank of Canada to actually begin cutting its policy rate before purchasing a home,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was down by less than one%% year-over-year. The average selling price was up by 0.3% to $1,156,167. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the MLS® HPI Composite was up by 0.4% and the average selling price was up by 1.5% compared to March.

“Generally speaking, buyers are benefitting from ample choice in the GTA resale market in April. As a result, there was little movement in selling prices compared to last year. Looking forward, the expectation is that lower borrowing costs will prompt tighter market conditions in the months to come, which will result in renewed price growth, especially as we move into 2025,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“All levels of government have announced plans and stated that they are committed to improving affordability and choice for residents. However, more work is needed on alignment to achieve these goals, whether we’re talking about bringing enough housing online to account for future population growth or finding the right balance between government spending and combatting inflation. We can’t have policies in opposition. Housing policy alignment is key to achieving sustained, tangible results,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Ottawa - Modest Gains Across Ottawa’s Market a Sign of Shared Confidence

Ottawa, May 6, 2024 -- The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) totaled 1,456 units in April 2024. This was an increase of 8.9% from April 2023.

Home sales were 2% below the five-year average and 6.9% below the 10-year average for the month of April.

On a year-to-date basis, home sales totaled 4,132 units over the first four months of the year — an increase of 11.5% from the same period in 2023.

“It’s a typical spring in Ottawa’s real estate market,” says OREB President Curtis Fillier. “What sets it apart from recent springs is a restored mutual confidence among both buyers and sellers. Buoyed by recent sales activity, sellers are more confident that they can move their property as evidenced by the uptick in listings. For buyers, the pressure of the pandemic market has eased and they’re comfortable taking the time to find the property that best suits their needs. The pace is still conservative while the economy is holding some back, but overall Ottawa’s market is strong and stable, and that’s a win-win.”

“The real story is in the details,” says Fillier. “Looking more closely at what’s selling and for how much suggests the demographic of buyer is changing. While most of Ottawa’s market is in balanced territory, townhomes have shifted to the seller’s market side as supply shrinks. Single-family homes are the most active market, which is inflating the average sale price. The next few months will be both telling and interesting as people continue to redefine their post-pandemic normal amid an upcoming federal election and back-to-work mandate for government workers. The detailed insights and data that REALTORS® have unique access to will be invaluable in helping buyers fine-tune their strategy for their specific neighbourhood and property type.”

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $643,700 in April 2024, a marginal gain of 1.6% from April 2023.

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $727,700, up 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in April. By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $500,800, up slightly at 1% compared to a year earlier. The benchmark apartment price was $423,100, up 2.1% from year-ago levels.

The average price of homes sold in April 2024 was $705,117 increasing 1.2% from April 2023. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $675,817, increasing by 2.4% from the first four months of 2023. The dollar volume of all home sales in April 2024 was $1.02 billion, up 10.2% from the same month in 2023.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Prices will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

The number of new listings saw an increase of 40.5% from April 2023. There were 2,597 new residential listings in April 2024. New listings were 19.7% above the five-year average and 4.6% above the 10-year average for the month of April.

Active residential listings numbered 2,966 units on the market at the end of April 2024, a gain of 36.6% from April 2023. Active listings were 62.6% above the five-year average and 13.7% below the 10-year average for the month of April.

Months of inventory numbered 2 at the end of April 2024, up only slightly from 1.6 in April 2023. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

Britsh Columbia - Inventory Reaches Highest Level Since The Pandemic Summer of 2020

Metro Vancouver, April 5, 2023 -- Actively listed homes for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver1 continued climbing in April, up 42% year-over-year, breaching the 12,000 mark, a number not seen in the region since the summer of 2020.

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR)2 reports that residential sales3 in the region totalled 2,831 in April 2024, a 3.3% increase from the 2,741 sales recorded in April 2023. This was 12.2% below the 10-year seasonal average (3,223).

"It’s a feat to see inventory finally climb above 12,000. Many were predicting higher inventory levels would materialize quickly when the Bank of Canada began its aggressive rate hikes, but we’re only seeing a steady climb in inventory in the more recent data. The surprise for many market watchers has been the continued strength of demand along with the fact few homeowners have been forced to sell in the face of the highest borrowing costs experienced in over a decade." Andrew Lis, REBGV director of economics and data analytics

There were 7,092 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in April 2024. This represents a 64.7% increase compared to the 4,307 properties listed in April 2023. This was 25.8% above the 10-year seasonal average (5,637).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 12,491, a 42.1% increase compared to April 2023 (8,790). This is 16.7% above the 10-year seasonal average (10,704).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for April 2024 is 23.5%. By property type, the ratio is 17.6% for detached homes, 31.0% for attached, and 26.0% for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20% over several months.

“Another surprising story in the April data is the fact prices continue climbing across most segments with recent increases typically in the range of one to 2% month-over-month,” Lis said.

“The one segment that didn’t see an uptick in prices in April were apartments, which saw a 0.1% decline month-over-month. This moderation is likely due to a confluence of factors impacting this more affordability-sensitive segment of the market, particularly the impact of higher mortgage rates and the recent boost to inventory levels, tempering competition somewhat.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,205,800. This represents a 2.8% increase over April 2023 and a 0.8% increase compared to March 2024.

Sales of detached homes in April 2024 reached 814, a 0.7% increase from the 808 detached sales recorded in April 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,040,000. This represents a 6.3% increase from April 2023 and a 1.6% increase compared to March 2024.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,416 in April 2024, a 0.2% increase compared to the 1,413 sales in April 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $776,500. This represents a 3.2% increase from April 2023 and a 0.1% decrease compared to March 2024.

Attached home sales in April 2024 totalled 580, a 16% increase compared to the 500 sales in April 2023. The benchmark price of townhouses is $1,127,200. This represents a 4.3% increase from April 2023 and a 1.3% increase compared to March 2024.

Alberta - Price Growth Persists in Calgary as Seller's Market Prevails

City of Calgary, May 1, 2024 – Sales in April rose by 7% compared to last year, to 2,881 units. While the pace of growth did ease compared to earlier in the year, sales remain 37% higher than long-term trends for the month. Much of the growth in sales has occurred for relatively more affordable, higher-density products.

At the same time, there were 3,491 new listings in April, an 11% gain over last year but only 3% higher than long-term trends. The rise in new listings compared to sales prevented any further deterioration of the inventory situation. However, with 2,711 units in inventory, levels are 16% below last year and half of what is traditionally seen in April.

“While supply levels are still declining, much of the decline has been driven by lower-priced homes," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Homes priced below $500,000 have reported a 29% decline. Meanwhile, we are seeing supply growth in homes priced above $700,000. Persistently high-interest rates are driving demand toward more affordable products in the market and, at the same time, driving listing growth for higher-priced properties.”

With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 83% and a months of supply of less than one month, conditions continue to favour the seller, driving further price gains in the market. In April, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price reached $603,700, a 1% gain over last month and nearly 10% higher than last year's levels. Price gains occurred across all property types and districts of the city. The strongest price growth occurred in the more affordable districts of the city. 

Detached home sales rose by 1% in April compared to last year. Sales gains in the higher price ranges offset the steep decline for homes priced below $600,000, which is related to the lack of listings in the lower price ranges. While detached new listings did report a year-over-year gain of 10%, detached homes priced below $600,000 saw new listings decline by 34%. 

Adjustments in sales and inventory levels caused the months of supply to fall further this month. The less than one-month supply reflects a market favouring the seller, driving further price growth. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $749,000, over 1% higher than last month and 13% higher than April 2023 levels. Year-over-year gains were the highest in the city's most affordable districts.

Semi-Detached Sales continued to rise in April, contributing to the nearly 18% year-to-date growth in sales. The growth in sales was partly due to gains in new listings. However, the growth in new listings did little to change the low inventory situation, as the months of supply remained below one month for the second month in a row. 

The persistently tight market conditions have caused further price gains. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $668,400, nearly two% higher than last month and 13% higher than levels reported last year. Year-over-year price gains ranged from a high of 23% in the East district to a low of 10% in the City Centre. 

Row home sales continued to improve in April, contributing to the 19% year-to-date gain. At the same time, new listings have improved by 16% so far this year. The gains in new listings did little to change the low inventory situation due to sales activity. This has kept the sales-to-new-listings ratio high at 93% and the months of inventory below one month for the fourth consecutive month.

The persistently tight conditions, especially in the lower price ranges, are driving further price growth for row homes. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $458,100, 2% higher than last month and 20% higher than levels reported last year. Both monthly and year-over-year gains were the highest in the most affordable districts of the North East and East, where resale row homes are still priced below $400,000. 

for Apartment Condominium, Sales in April reached 822 units, contributing to year-to-date sales of 2,761 units, a 24% gain. Apartment condominium sales have risen more than any other property type and now represent nearly 30% of all resale activity. This, in part, has been possible due to the rise in new listings. April reported 1,050 new listings, helping support a monthly gain in inventory levels in line with seasonal expectations. However, inventory levels remain nearly 13% lower than last year’s and are 35% below long-term trends. 

Like other property types, year-over-year supply declines are driven by the lower-priced segments of the market, which for apartment condominiums is units priced below $300,000. Overall, persistent sellers’ market conditions in the lower price ranges are driving further price growth. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $346,200 a month, a gain of over 2% and nearly 18% higher than last April. Year-over-year price growth ranged from over 30% in the North East and East districts to a low of 13% in the City Centre.